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About the Marine & coastal projections

The marine projections are provided as three datasets:

An overview of the projections continues on this page; for more in-depth information please use the More about links, or the page navigation.

  • Multi-level ocean projections

The UKCP09 multi-level ocean projections have been developed using outputs from the MOHC regional climate modelling to drive the Atlantic Margin application shelf sea model of the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS).

  • Projections of changes (and future absolute climate) in water temperature, salinity, the stability of the water column, and currents
  • For 34 depth levels (from water surface to sea bed), only 2 available on the User Interface (near-surface and near-bed)
  • For 12 km marine grid squares
  • For the 30 year time period of 2070 to 2099 (it is also possible to produce maps for the baseline period of 1961–1990)
  • For the UKCP09 medium emissions scenario (IPCC SRES: A1B).

More information about the method is given in Chapter 6 of the UKCP09 Marine & coastal projections report. 

Multi-level ocean projections provide a range of information for a number of different variables. The mean, maximum, minimum and standard deviation of the projections are provided for the following variables:

  • Kinetic energy through the water column
  • Potential energy anomaly
  • Mixed layer depth
  • Salinity
  • Sea water potenital temperature

For projections of stratification the following information is available:

  • Day of breakdown of seasonal stratification
  • Day of onset of seasonal stratification
  • Day of peak seasonal stratification
  • Average number of seasonally stratified days

Information is also provided on ancillary variables of:

  • Bathymetry
  • Depth below the surface of the near-bed model level
  • Depth below the surface of the near-surface model level
More about the multi-level ocean projections…
  • Sea level rise projections

The UKCP09 sea level rise information provides projections:

  • Of changes in absolute sea level for the UK as a whole.
  • Of changes in relative sea level for 12 km coastal grid squares.
  • For the period 1999–2099.
  • For three emissions scenarios Low (IPCC SRES: B1), Medium (IPCC SRES: A1B), and High (IPCC SRES: A1FI), plus a high risk, low probability scenario. The Low and High emission scenarios have been scaled from the Medium emission scenario for the sea level projections. See Chapter 3 of the Marine & coastal projections report, for more information.
More about the sea level rise projections…
  • Storm surge projections

The UKCP09 storm surge height projections have been developed using outputs from Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate modelling to drive the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory () storm surge model. 

  • The linear trend and 5th and 95th percentiles throughout the 21st Century, for each return period, at each 12 km coastal grid square. The statistical significance of the trend is also indicated.
  • For 2, 10, 20 and 50 year return period events.
  • For the UKCP09 medium (IPCC SRES: A1B) emissions scenario, plus a high risk, low probability scenario (H++).

See Chapter 4 of the Marine & coastal projections report for more information.

More about the storm surge height projections…