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Interpreting maps of probability for a given threshold

These maps show the projected probability of a change exceeding or being less than a particular user-defined threshold.

For example, the map below shows the probability of the projected change in mean absolute summer precipitation (from 1961-1990) being less than the user-defined threshold of +1% by the 2080s (for a high emissions scenario) in the South East of the UK.

The map shows that, in the southern area, there is up to a 60% probability that the projected precipitation change is less than +1%.

In the northern areas of the map there is up to a 20% probability that the projected change in precipitation is less than +1%. There is also a greater than 80% probability that the projected change in precipitation is greater than +1%.

Map of probabilityfor a certain threshold