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Risks to council services in Milton Keynes

Objectives: Milton Keynes Council used UKCP09 to undertake a first assessment of the possible vulnerabilities and risks faced by the council services due to climate change by building on the work undertaken to develop the Local Climate Impact Profile (LCLIP). This highlighted the impact that major weather events have had on the Milton Keynes Council area within the last ten years.

UKCP09 products used: Maps and Key Findings; User Interface; Threshold Detector; Weather Generator

How were UKCP09 products used?

  1. The use of UKCP09 builds on the Milton Keynes Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP) which documented the impact of extreme events on the council area. The lack of comprehensive data, especially with regards to the meteorological conditions that led to the specific events, did not allow for establishing clear-cut thresholds for all key impacts; it did however help identify the effects of specific meteorological conditions to which the council is most vulnerable.
  1. A table was created to summarise the Key Findings for the South East of England.
  1. Using the LCLIP report as a reference, the UKCP09 Key findings for the South East were utilised to give an overview of the general trends being projected under climate change for the area.
  1. Based on the projected trends and the events to which the council has demonstrated vulnerability in the past, a number of maps were produced through the UKCP09 User interface focussing on key climate variables of significance to Milton Keynes.
  1. Considering the vulnerability that the council has shown to heatwaves in the past, the UKCP09 Threshold Detector was then used to analyse a number of weather generator outputs. This calculation used the heat-wave threshold for the South East of England which is maximum temperature > 31°C and minimum temperature > 16°C for two consecutive days. The outputs were then translated into graphs with Excel.

Difficulties & limitations

Using the user interface to download a lot of runs can be very slow at times.

Lessons learned

For the creation of maps it is often easier and faster to use maps already created (for example within the Maps & key findings section). Clicking on the Link to customisable output it is possible to open the selected map in the output page of the UKCP09 User Interface from where you can then edit the parameters to produce your own output.

When creating graphs that summarise emission trends always include baseline data and remember to specify that all changes are expressed in relation to a modelled 30-yr baseline period (1961-1990). With this in mind it is therefore important to note that a significant proportion of the time between the baseline period and future time periods has already elapsed, so the changes should not be referred to as "from today's climate".

How will the results be communicated to the target audience?

A summary document and presentation was prepared to circulate/highlight key findings and next steps to key service areas within the Council and LSP Partners.

Find out more 

 

  • Contact details:Martin Davies, Milton Keynes Council & Giorgio Bagordo,United Sustainable Energy Agency.

The full report is available from the  Milton Keynes Council website