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Overheating risk for buildings

Objectives: The Chartered Institute of Building Services Engineers and Arup developed this mock case study (using dummy data) to consider how UKCP09 may be used in simulating the thermal properties of buildings under the future climate. The range of projections is used to explore overheating risk in a living room of a 1930s semi-detached house, both with and without adaptation measures.

How they used UKCP09 dummy data

1. The change factors for future temperature were extracted from the underlying data accompanying the UK maps for the averaging period, location, emission scenarios, probability levels and time periods specified alongside. The change factors are the difference between the baseline climate and the projected future climate.

2. The monthly change factors were used to adjust the CIBSE design summer year (Baseline) for July, to get future projections. This was done by adding the monthly change factors to the daily data that CIBSE use, in their modelling, to represent a typical current July at a daily timescale.

3. The adjusted weather data was used to model 3 cases:

· Base case of a completely unadapted house;

· House with climate change adaptation measures retrofitted;

· House cooled using air conditioning.

4. The effectiveness of adaptation measures for the 3 cases was compared with reference to the likely range of the climate change projections.

Next steps

By modelling all 3 cases they would be able to compare the effectiveness of adaptation measures and the risk associated with each climate change projection. Recommendations could be made on the most financially beneficial options.

Lessons learned

  • Careful presentation is needed to convey probabilistic information accurately but in a manner which users can understand

Find out more

  • Contact details: Rachel Capon, ARUP; Anastasia Mylona, CIBSE