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Climate change and the UK cider industry

Objectives: The National Association of Cider Makers developed this mock case study, using dummy data. The aim of the study was to produce a summary of climate projections that will lead to future capacity building activities. The study has an awareness-raising function as well as supporting cider-makers and orchards in making decisions that are climate resilient.

How they used UKCP09 dummy data

The study used dummy data in two distinct ways:

Assessment of supply

  1. Key findings were used to show an overview of future climate in cider apple growing regions.
  2. Pre-prepared maps and graphs were used to aid orchard planting decisions.
  3. A threshold was identified for trees to enter winter dormancy and the Threshold Detector was run to explore the likelihood of the dormancy condition being met under the projected future climate.

Assessment of demand

  1. Plume plots were used to understand changes in average temperature over time, so that future demand for cider could be assessed.
  2. A short report was written which incorporated all the information generated and described the selected climate impacts together with summarizing how the presented output could be used.

Next steps

The results would be communicated through the National Association of Cider Makers fact sheets and articles in the trade press. There is potential for a student to develop the results into another report on Climate change.

What they learnt about UKCP09

The amount of information available in UKCP09 forces you to think carefully about what is important and how to present it. Ideally soil moisture information would have been available so that it could be used instead of precipitation.

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