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Latent heat flux

Latent heat flux is the movement of heat from the Earth's surface to the atmosphere that is associated with evaporation or transpiration.

In detail

UKCP09 does not include projections for latent heat flux because projected changes from two of the alternative climate models were often found to be well outside the range of the Met Office model variants. Because of this our method of combining results from the Met Office model variants and the alternative models could not be guaranteed to provide a robust indication of the probabilities of different outcomes so PDFs were not provided.

There are three possible alternative sources of projections of transient changes during the 21st century:

  • The 17-member ensemble of variants of the Met Office GCM
  • The 11-member ensemble of variants of the Met Office RCM
  • The ensemble of other global climate models, available as part of the CMIP3 project.

It is recommended that those needing information on latent heat flux use changes from the 11-member Met Office RCM ensemble in the first instance. Data from the Met Office GCM and RCM are available from the Climate Impacts LINK project, operated by BADC.

Find out more:


  • For variables for which probabilistic projections could not be provided, go to  of the UKCP09 Briefing Report, with more details in  of the UKCP09 Climate Change Projections report.
  • The 11-member RCM data is described in the 11 member RCM section, and the UKCP09 Climate Change Projections report.
  • More details about the climate models used are given in Box 2.1 of the UKCP09 Climate Change Projections report. A commentary about the strengths and weaknesses of climate models is given in Annex 3 of the Climate Change Projections report.
  • For an overview of how probabilistic projections are created and presented, see Box 3 of the UKCP09 Briefing Report, in the Reports & guidance section. More details are in Chapter 3 of the UKCP09 Climate Change Projections report, including an overview of the methodology.
  • Recent trends in wind speed are presented in Chapter 2 of the Observed trends report.