Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) plots
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) plots are a type of graph that you can use to visualise the UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections. A CDF plot shows the probability associated with change being less than a certain amount.
For example, you could use a CDF plot to show the probability associated with temperature in the UK changing by less than 2˚C by the 2050s under a high emissions scenario.
CDF plots show probabilistic climate projections or probabilistic climate change projections for a particular climate variable, spatial location, time period, temporal average, emissions scenario and probability level.
A CDF plot might be useful for those who want to know the probability of climate change being less than a specified threshold, for example where an impact of interest is known to start to occur.
Find out more
- CDF plots are explained in more detail in the Reports & guidance section. More information about Cumulative Distribution Functions is given in Annex 4.1 of the UKCP09 Climate change projections report.
- An overview of how probabilistic projections are created and presented in UKCP09 is described in Box 3 of the UKCP09 Briefing report.
- More details are provided in Chapter 3 of the UKCP09 Climate Change Projections report, including an overview of the methodology and a discussion about the interpretation of UKCP09 probabilistic projections.
- A discussion of sources of uncertainty in the UKCP09 probabilistic projections is available in Annex 2.4 of the Climate change projections report.
- The UKCP09 User Interface Manual