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UKCIP02 are a previous generation of climate projections derived from a series of climate modelling experiments commissioned and funded by Defra, undertaken by the Hadley Centre and analysed by the Tyndall Centre in 2002. They have now been superseded by the UKCP09 probabilistic projections.

In detail

The UKCIP02 scenarios are based on four different IPCC SRES Emissions scenarios and three future time-slices.

Unlike UKCP09, the UKCIP02 projections were not probabilistic. They were also produced at a spatial resolution of 50 km rather than the 25 km resolution of the UKCP09 projections.

Find out more


A comparison between UKCIP02 and UKCP09 is provided in sections 4.3 and 5.6 of the UKCP09 Briefing Report. Further comparisons are presented in section 4.3.11 of the UKCP09 Climate change projections report.

  • Hulme, M., Jenkins, G. J., Lu, X., Turnpenny, J. R., Mitchell T. D., Jones, R. G., Lowe, J., Murphy, J. M., Hassell, D., Boorman, P., McDonald, R. and Hill, S. Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK (2002) 120 pp.
  • Gawith, M et al. (2009). Application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios: Reflections and lessons learnt. Global Environmental Change 19(1), 113-121. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.09.005
  • Hulme, M and Dessai, S (2008). Negotiating future climates for public policy: a critical assessment of the development of climate scenarios for the UK. Environmental Science and Policy 11, 54-70. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2007.09.003  
  • Dessai, S and Hulme, M (2008). How do UK climate scenarios compare with recent observations?. Atmospheric Science Letters 9(4), 189-195. doi: 10.1002/asl.197