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Climate change projection

Climate projections expressed in terms of the difference between the absolute future climate and a baseline climatology.

In detail

A projection of the response of the climate system to emission scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios based upon climate model simulations and past observations. Climate change projections are expressed as departures from a baseline climatology, for example, that future average daily temperature in the summer will be 2°C warmer for a given location, time period and emissions scenario.

  • Further explanation is provided in section 1.2 of the UKCP09 Climate change projections report.
  • The UKCP09 User Interface allows the UKCP09 probabilistic projections to be provided as either future absolute climate or as change from the 1961-1990 baseline climate.