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Summer mean temperature

Medium emissions scenario

The wider range is defined as the range from the lowest to highest value of change for all Emissions scenario and all three (10, 50, and 90%) Probability level for each 30-year time period.

 
Change in mean summer temperature (ºC)
2020s Medium emissions scenario
RegionProbability level
10%
50%
90%
Wider range
Channel Islands
0.5
1.4
2.5
0.4
2.5
East Midlands0.5
1.4 2.5
0.4
2.5
East of England
0.5
1.4
2.5
0.5
2.6
Isle of Man
0.5
1.3
2.2
0.5
2.2
London
0.6
1.6
2.7
0.5
2.8
North East England
0.6
1.5
2.5
0.6
2.5
North West England
0.6
1.5
2.5
0.6
2.5
Northern Ireland 0.4
1.32.2
0.4
2.2
Scotland East
0.6
1.4
2.4
0.6
2.4
Scotland North
0.5
1.2
2.1
0.5
2.1
Scotland West0.6
1.4
2.3
0.6
2.3
South East England
0.6
1.6
2.7
0.5
2.8
South West England 0.5
1.6
2.7
0.5
2.7
Wales0.5
1.4
2.5
0.5
2.5
West Midlands
0.5
1.5
2.6
0.5
2.6
Yorkshire & Humber
0.5
1.3
2.3
0.4
2.3
 
Change in mean summer temperature (ºC)
2050s Medium emissions scenario
RegionProbability level
10%
50%
90%
Wider range
Channel Islands
1.2
2.5
4.2
1.0
4.7
East Midlands1.2 2.54.2
1.0
4.7
East of England
1.22.5
4.3
1.0
4.8
Isle of Man
1.1
2.3
3.7
1.0
4.2
London
1.3
2.7
4.6
1.1
5.2
North East England
1.22.54.1
1.1
4.7
North West England
1.22.64.1
1.1
4.7
Northern Ireland 1.0
2.2
3.5
0.8
4.0
Scotland East
1.1
2.3
3.9
1.0
4.5
Scotland North
0.92.0
3.4
0.9 3.9
Scotland West1.1
2.4
3.8
1.0
4.4
South East England
1.32.8
4.6
1.1
5.2
South West England 1.3
2.7
4.6
1.1
5.1
Wales1.22.5 4.1
1.0
4.6
West Midlands
1.2
2.6 4.4
1.0
4.8
Yorkshire & Humber
1.1
2.3
3.9
0.9
4.4
 
Change in mean summer temperature (ºC)
2080s Medium emissions scenario
RegionProbability level
10%
50%
90%
Wider range
Channel Islands
1.9
3.6
5.9
1.2
7.3
East Midlands1.8
3.5
5.8
1.27.3
East of England
1.9
3.6
5.9
1.3
7.5
Isle of Man
1.8
3.3
5.2
1.2
6.5
London
2.0
3.9
6.4
1.4
8.1
North East England
2.0
3.7
5.8
1.3
7.3
North West England
2.0 3.7
5.9
1.3
7.3
Northern Ireland 1.7
3.2
5.0
1.1
6.2
Scotland East
1.8
3.5
5.7
1.2
7.0
Scotland North
1.5
3.0
4.9
1.0
6.0
Scotland West1.8
3.5
5.4
1.2
6.8
South East England
2.0
3.9
6.5
1.4
8.1
South West England 2.1
3.9
6.4
1.3
7.9
Wales1.9
3.5
5.8
1.2
7.1
West Midlands
2.0
3.7
6.1
1.3
7.5
Yorkshire & Humber
1.7
3.3
5.4
1.2
6.8