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2050s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.8ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.8ºC to 3.5ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.5ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.1ºC to 5.1ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 3.4ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 6.2ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 7.6ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.5ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.5ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 5.5ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 0%; it is very unlikely to be less than -4% and is very unlikely to be more than 5%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -6% to 6%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 12%; it is very unlikely to be less than 0% and is very unlikely to be more than 30%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0% to 41%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -14%; it is very unlikely to be less than -39% and is very unlikely to be more than 16%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -45% to 16%.


Map of the UK showing South West England region