Search site

2050's

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.9ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 3.7ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 4.4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 2.9ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 6.1ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.4ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 5ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is -1%; it is very unlikely to be less than -5% and is very unlikely to be more than 4%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -5% to 4%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 9%; it is very unlikely to be less than 0% and is very unlikely to be more than 20%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0% to 27%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -15%; it is very unlikely to be less than -34% and is very unlikely to be more than 9%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -38% to 9%.


Map of the UK showing Yorkshire & Humber region