Search site

2050's

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.8ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.8ºC to 3.4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.7ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 4.6ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.5ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 6.7ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 5ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is -1%; it is very unlikely to be less than -6% and is very unlikely to be more than 5%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -6% to 6%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 9%; it is very unlikely to be less than -1% and is very unlikely to be more than 23%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -1% to 31%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -12%; it is very unlikely to be less than -33% and is very unlikely to be more than 13%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -38% to 13%.


Wales_lo2.jpg