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2050's

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.8ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.8ºC to 3.4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.4ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.1ºC to 4.7ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.3ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 6.4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 4.9ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is -1%; it is very unlikely to be less than -6% and is very unlikely to be more than 5%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -6% to 5%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 9%; it is very unlikely to be less than -1% and is very unlikely to be more than 20%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -1% to 26%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -12%; it is very unlikely to be less than -28% and is very unlikely to be more than 7%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -31% to 7%.


Map of the UK showing North East region