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2020s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.4ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.3ºC to 2ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 1.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.8ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.5ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.6ºC to 2.5ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.6ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.5ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.4ºC to 3.5ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 1.5ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.6ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.5ºC to 2.6ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 1%; it is very unlikely to be less than -5% and is very unlikely to be more than 7%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -6% to 7%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 4%; it is very unlikely to be less than -4% and is very unlikely to be more than 14%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -4% to 14%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -6%; it is very unlikely to be less than -20% and is very unlikely to be more than 8%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -23% to 10%.


Map of the UK showing North West region