Search site

2050s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.8ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.8ºC to 3.3ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.4ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.1ºC to 4.7ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 3.1ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.3ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 6.5ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 4.9ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is -1%; it is very unlikely to be less than -8% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -8% to 8%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 8%; it is very unlikely to be less than -1% and is very unlikely to be more than 20%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -1% to 27%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -14%; it is very unlikely to be less than -34% and is very unlikely to be more than 8%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -37% to 8%.


Map of the UK showing North West region