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2080s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.3ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.5ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.3ºC to 4.8ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.3ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.3ºC to 7.3ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 3.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 6.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 10.1ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.1ºC to 7.8ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 0%; it is very unlikely to be less than -6% and is very unlikely to be more than 8%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -10% to 12%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 15%; it is very unlikely to be less than 5% and is very unlikely to be more than 30%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 3% to 50%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -17%; it is very unlikely to be less than -35% and is very unlikely to be more than 3%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -51% to 3%.


Map of the UK showing North West region