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2050s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 3.8ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.3ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.1ºC to 5.2ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 3.5ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 6.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 7.4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.7ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.7ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 5.7ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 0%; it is very unlikely to be less than -4% and is very unlikely to be more than 5%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -6% to 6%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 13%; it is very unlikely to be less than 1% and is very unlikely to be more than 30%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1% to 40%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -14%; it is very unlikely to be less than -37% and is very unlikely to be more than 16%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -43% to 16%.


Mao of the UK showing South East England region