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2080s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.4ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.0ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.4ºC to 5.7ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 3.0ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.4ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.4ºC to 8.1ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 4.1ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.4ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 7.4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.4ºC to 11.5ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 3.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.4ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.4ºC to 9.1ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 2%; it is very unlikely to be less than -3% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -7% to 9%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 18%; it is very unlikely to be less than 4% and is very unlikely to be more than 40%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 4% to 67%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -15%; it is very unlikely to be less than -39% and is very unlikely to be more than 13%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -57% to 13%.


Map of the UK showing South East England region