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2050s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.8ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.8ºC to 3.3ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 4.4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 2.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 5.9ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 4.7ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is -2%; it is very unlikely to be less than -8% and is very unlikely to be more than 5%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -8% to 6%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 10%; it is very unlikely to be less than -1% and is very unlikely to be more than 23%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -1% to 31%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -10%; it is very unlikely to be less than -25% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -28% to 6%.


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