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2050s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.6ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.6ºC to 3ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 1.9ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 3.9ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 2.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.8ºC to 5.3ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.1ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.5ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 4.4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is -2%; it is very unlikely to be less than -8% and is very unlikely to be more than 5%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -8% to 6%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 8%; it is very unlikely to be less than -1% and is very unlikely to be more than 20%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -1% to 26%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -8%; it is very unlikely to be less than -21% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -24% to 6%.


Mpa of the UK showing Scotland North region