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2080s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.2ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 4.1ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 6ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 2.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 8.3ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.1ºC to 6.9ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 0%; it is very unlikely to be less than -6% and is very unlikely to be more than 7%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -11% to 10%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 16%; it is very unlikely to be less than 4% and is very unlikely to be more than 31%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 4% to 45%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -9%; it is very unlikely to be less than -23% and is very unlikely to be more than 5%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -36% to 5%.


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