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2020s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.1ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.1ºC to 2.1ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 1.5ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.7ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.6ºC to 2.4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 1.9ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.6ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.3ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.4ºC to 3.4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 1.5ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.7ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.6ºC to 2.6ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 1%; it is very unlikely to be less than -4% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -5% to 6%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 3%; it is very unlikely to be less than -4% and is very unlikely to be more than 11%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -4% to 12%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -5%; it is very unlikely to be less than -15% and is very unlikely to be more than 7%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -17% to 8%.


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