Search site

2050s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.6ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.7ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.6ºC to 3.1ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 4.5ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 2.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 6.4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 4.9ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is -1%; it is very unlikely to be less than -6% and is very unlikely to be more than 5%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -6% to 6%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 6%; it is very unlikely to be less than -2% and is very unlikely to be more than 15%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -2% to 20%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -11%; it is very unlikely to be less than -26% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -28% to 6%.


Map of the UK showing Scotland East region