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2080s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2.1ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.3ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 4.2ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.7ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.5ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 7ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 3.4ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 6.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.1ºC to 10ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.9ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 7.7ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 0%; it is very unlikely to be less than -5% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -8% to 9%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 11%; it is very unlikely to be less than 2% and is very unlikely to be more than 22%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1% to 36%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -12%; it is very unlikely to be less than -27% and is very unlikely to be more than 3%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -40% to 3%.


Map of the UK showing Scorland East region