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2020s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.3ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 1.7ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.3ºC to 1.8ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 1.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.6ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.4ºC to 2.2ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 1.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.4ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.3ºC to 3.0ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 1.4ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.5ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.4ºC to 2.5ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 0%; it is very unlikely to be less than -3% and is very unlikely to be more than 3%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -3% to 3%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 3%; it is very unlikely to be less than -4% and is very unlikely to be more than 10%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -4% to 10%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -5%; it is very unlikely to be less than -16% and is very unlikely to be more than 7%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -17% to 10%.


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