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2050s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.5ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.6ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.5ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.6ºC to 2.9ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 1.9ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.8ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.2ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.8ºC to 4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 2.4ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.8ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.3ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.8ºC to 5.4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.1ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 4.6ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is -1%; it is very unlikely to be less than -4% and is very unlikely to be more than 3%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -4% to 3%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 6%; it is very unlikely to be less than -1% and is very unlikely to be more than 14%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -1% to 19%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -9%; it is very unlikely to be less than -24% and is very unlikely to be more than 8%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -28% to 8%.


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