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2080s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.2ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.1ºC to 4.4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.4ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.1ºC to 6.2ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 2.9ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 8.5ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 7.4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 0%; it is very unlikely to be less than -3% and is very unlikely to be more than 4%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -6% to 5%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 11%; it is very unlikely to be less than 3% and is very unlikely to be more than 21%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 2% to 34%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -11%; it is very unlikely to be less than -26% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -39% to 6%.


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