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2080s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2.4ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.4ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.7ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.4ºC to 5.1ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.9ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.3ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.3ºC to 7.9ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 4.1ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.3ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 7.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.3ºC to 11.9ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 3.1ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 8.8ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 2%; it is very unlikely to be less than -3% and is very unlikely to be more than 7%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -7% to 10%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 19%; it is very unlikely to be less than 5% and is very unlikely to be more than 42%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 5% to 73%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -16%; it is very unlikely to be less than -40% and is very unlikely to be more than 13%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -58% to 13%.


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