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2050s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 3.8ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.4ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 4.8ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 3.2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.1ºC to 6.8ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.5ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.3ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.1ºC to 5.3ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 0%; it is very unlikely to be less than -4% and is very unlikely to be more than 5%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -5% to 6%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 12%; it is very unlikely to be less than 1% and is very unlikely to be more than 26%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1% to 35%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -13%; it is very unlikely to be less than -34% and is very unlikely to be more than 14%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -40% to 14%.