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2080s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.4ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.4ºC to 5.7ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.7ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.3ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.7ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.3ºC to 7.5ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 3.7ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 6.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 10.6ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.3ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.3ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.3ºC to 8.4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 2%; it is very unlikely to be less than -3% and is very unlikely to be more than 6%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -6% to 8%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 16%; it is very unlikely to be less than 4% and is very unlikely to be more than 34%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 4% to 57%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -14%; it is very unlikely to be less than -36% and is very unlikely to be more than 11%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -53% to 11%.


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