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2020s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2.4ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.3ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.3ºC to 5ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.7ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 7.3ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 3.7ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 6.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 10.7ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.3ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.1ºC to 8.4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 1%; it is very unlikely to be less than -3% and is very unlikely to be more than 4%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -7% to 4%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 17%; it is very unlikely to be less than 3% and is very unlikely to be more than 37%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 3% to 62%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -19%; it is very unlikely to be less than -46% and is very unlikely to be more than 16%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -65% to 16%.


Channel Islands in a map of the UK