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2050s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.8ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.8ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.8ºC to 3.4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 4.7ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 3.1ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 6.9ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.4ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.9ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.3ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.9ºC to 5.3ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 1%; it is very unlikely to be less than -3% and is very unlikely to be more than 4%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -5% to 4%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 13%; it is very unlikely to be less than 0% and is very unlikely to be more than 29%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0% to 38%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -17%; it is very unlikely to be less than -44% and is very unlikely to be more than 20%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -50% to 20%.


Channel Islands in a map of the UK