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2080s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is defined as the range from the lowest to highest value of change for all emissions scenarios and all three (10, 50, and90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 2.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.4ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.4ºC to 5.6ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.7ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 7.3ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 3.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.2ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 6.6ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.2ºC to 10.3ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2.9ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1.3ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 5.2ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1.3ºC to 8.2ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 2%; it is very unlikely to be less than -3% and is very unlikely to be more than 7%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -7% to 9%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 15%; it is very unlikely to be less than 3% and is very unlikely to be more than 32%. A wider range of uncertainty is from 3% to 54%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -13%; it is very unlikely to be less than -34% and is very unlikely to be more than 11%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -50% to 11%.


UK map showing the East Midlands