Search site

2050s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.7ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.5ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.7ºC to 3ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 2.1ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 1ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.4ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 1ºC to 4.2ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 2.7ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.8ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 4.7ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.8ºC to 5.7ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.8ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.5ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.8ºC to 4.4ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is -1%; it is very unlikely to be less than -7% and is very unlikely to be more than 4%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -7% to 5%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 10%; it is very unlikely to be less than -2% and is very unlikely to be more than 27%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -2% to 36%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -13%; it is very unlikely to be less than -30% and is very unlikely to be more than 8%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -33% to 8%.


Map of the UK showing the Isle of Man