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2020s

Low emissions scenario

The wider range is from the lowest to highest value for all emissions scenarios and three (10, 50, and 90%) probability levels for each 30-year time period.

  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in winter mean temperature is 1.3ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.5ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.1ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.5ºC to 2.2ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean temperature is 1.6ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.7ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.5ºC to 2.8ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily maximum temperature is 2.2ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.7ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 3.8ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.5ºC to 3.8ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of increase in summer mean daily minimum temperature is 1.7ºC; it is very unlikely to be less than 0.7ºC and is very unlikely to be more than 2.9ºC. A wider range of uncertainty is from 0.6ºC to 2.9ºC.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in annual mean precipitation is 1%; it is very unlikely to be less than -3% and is very unlikely to be more than 5%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -4% to 5%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in winter mean precipitation is 6%; it is very unlikely to be less than -4% and is very unlikely to be more than 18%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -4% to 18%.
  • Under low emissions, the central estimate of change in summer mean precipitation is -7%; it is very unlikely to be less than -24% and is very unlikely to be more than 13%. A wider range of uncertainty is from -26% to 18%.


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