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Marine & coastal projections images Figures 4.7-4.9: surges

Figure 4.7 (top): Schematic showing how changes in mean sea level and skew surge combine. The figures where these quantities are reported are also indicated. The future exceedance of present day tide is equal to the sum of the present day skew surge plus the increase in extreme water level. The increase in extreme water level* is equal to the mean sea level rise plus the change in skew surge height.

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Figure 4.8 (middle): Illustrative present-day baseline of skew surge (present-day extreme sea level above astronomical tide) 50-yr return levels (m). The central panel shows the estimated central value. Left and right panels show the lower and upper bounds of the 90% confidence interval.

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Figure 4.9 (bottom): Exceedance of present-day astronomical high tides by projected future extreme water 50-yr return levels for 2095 (m). The central panel shows the estimated central value. Left and right panels show the lower and upper bounds of the 90% confidence interval. Grey shows any value < 1.2 m.

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