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Is UKCP09 still an appropriate tool for adaptation planning?

Technical notes on the extent to which advice from UKCP09 remains an appropriate tool for adaptation planning are now available. The notes pertain to land and marine projections. In addition there is an  overarching set of guidance [116kb] on the use of UKCP09 products in the lead up to the update of projections to be launched in March 2018. You will find advice on whether you should continue to use UKCP09 products, consider additional information or use a different source of information altogether.

UKCP09 continues to provide a valid assessment of future UK climate over land, and it can still be used for adaptation planning. However, when considering decisions that are sensitive to projected future changes in summer rainfall, additional information from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive should be used. CMIP5 informed the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment (IPCC AR5). Please see the  land technical note [359kb] for further details.

UKCP09 also continues to provide a valid assessment of future UK climate over sea in the majority of projections. There have been more substantial changes in some areas of science including time-mean sea level projections which were based on the science of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. Recommendations for using this information and all marine projections can be found in the marine technical note [314kb].

You can register for project updates with the UKCP Project team.